Market Reports
Dubai’s real estate market recorded AED 43.7 billion in transactions across 13,565 deals in March 2026, reflecting a 28.8% decline from February after two months of peak activity.
Table of Contents
March 2026 marked a broad-based contraction in Dubai’s real estate market, with transaction value declining to AED 43.7 billion across 13,565 deals following elevated activity in January and February. The slowdown affected all major asset classes, including residential, commercial, and land, as transaction volumes normalized and high-value segments—particularly villas and land—saw reduced investor participation. At the same time, apartments demonstrated relative stability, maintaining the largest share of transactions and supporting overall market liquidity.
The report analyses performance across key segments, including apartments, villas, off-plan and ready sales, rental activity, and pricing trends. It highlights the continued dominance of off-plan transactions, shifts in buyer behaviour toward cash purchases, and the impact of upcoming supply on pricing dynamics. Particular attention is given to the divergence between asset classes, the contraction in commercial and land activity, and the role of rentals as an early indicator of changing market conditions.
March 2026 marked a sharp correction in Dubai’s real estate trajectory, with total transaction value reaching AED 43.7 billion across 13,565 deals. This represents a 28.8% decline from February’s AED 61.4 billion and a 20.8% contraction in volume from 17,120 transactions. This represents a 28.8% decline from February’s AED 61.4 billion and a 20.8% contraction in volume from 17,120 transactions. The figures mark a return to more normalised trading levels after the exceptional months of January and February, while volume was 10.5% below March 2025’s 15,150 transactions.
The contraction was broad-based, affecting asset classes, and reflects a combination of seasonal factors including the Ramadan period, the natural exhaustion of immediate demand following January and February’s record launches, and market participants pausing ahead of new supply releases. While the monthly drop appears severe, it positions the market at more sustainable trading levels after two exceptional months, with underlying liquidity remaining intact despite reduced speculative activity.
Access the Dubai Residential Market Review
Get the full analytical presentation in PDF format, including pricing dynamics, transaction volumes, and investment insights across Dubai’s residential market.
Apartments underpinned the market’s activity, with 10,720 sales worth AED 22.4 billion. Off-plan deals accounted for 76.7% of volume, totaling 8,217 transactions valued at AED 18.1 billion, while ready sales contributed 2,503 deals worth AED 4.3 billion. The segment represented the largest share of total market activity, with off-plan units comprising 76.7% of apartment volume (8,217 transactions valued at AED 18.1 billion) while ready stock contributed 2,503 deals (AED 4.3 billion).
Average pricing moderated slightly to AED 2,030 per sq ft for off-plan units, down from February’s AED 2,063, while ready stock adjusted to AED 1,647 per sq ft. Top off-plan destinations included Damac Island City (811 sales), Dubailand Residence (723), and JVC (636), though all recorded reduced absorption compared to the previous month. The correction suggests fewer new launches in March and buyer fatigue after the intense Q1 release schedule, rather than fundamental demand deterioration.
The villa segment experienced its second consecutive monthly contraction, with March transactions falling to 2,245 deals worth AED 14.6 billion—representing a 19% volume decline and 21% value decrease from February. Off-plan villa sales totaled 1,719 transactions (AED 11.0 billion), while ready units registered 526 deals (AED 3.5 billion). The average transaction value compressed significantly as the market moved away from January’s ultra-luxury peak inventory, settling into more normalized levels.
Activity remained concentrated in established family communities, though a substantial inventory pipeline is expected to temper pricing dynamics into the spring months of 2026. The segment’s correction aligns with demand patterns seen in prior cycles, where luxury demand softens after strong initial bursts, with pricing stability returning over a longer absorption period.
Off-plan sales maintained market dominance in March despite the broader contraction, accounting for 9,936 residential transactions (73.2% of volume) valued at AED 29.2 billion. However, both metrics represented significant declines from February’s 10,974 transactions and AED 33.3 billion. The average off-plan transaction value compressed to AED 2.94 million, down from February’s AED 3.05 million, reflecting reduced villa participation in the mix.
Ready sales totaled 3,029 transactions worth AED 7.8 billion. The off-plan segment’s resilience relative to ready stock capturing three-quarters of residential value despite the downturn underscores continued investor preference for structured payment plans and future delivery schedules, even as immediate absorption slowed.
Commercial property registered the steepest decline among major asset classes, with March transactions plummeting to 414 deals worth AED 2.2 billion, a 49.4 percent volume contraction and 47.6% value reduction month-on-month. The sector’s volatility reflects its sensitivity to business cycle timing, with March typically showing reduced commercial activity ahead of Q2 planning periods. New rental registrations also corrected sharply to 11,755 contracts (down 22.3%), with office leases declining 20.6% to 6,524 contracts and retail/showroom rentals falling 28.8% to 1,421 deals. Industrial leasing dropped 38.2% to 188 contracts. Despite the monthly retreat, underlying occupier demand in Business Bay and DIFC remained stable, suggesting the correction represents timing rather than trend reversal.
Land activity collapsed in March as institutional players paused acquisition strategies, recording just 186 transactions worth AED 4.5 billion, a 56.5% volume decline and 60.2% value contraction from February. The sharp drop follows two months of robust land banking and reflects developers reassessing pipeline timing ahead of the 11,036 apartments and 2,005 villas scheduled for April handover. Strategic acquisitions were limited to smaller infill parcels, with large-scale master plan site purchases notably absent from the monthly tally. The land market’s freeze indicates a strategic pause as the market digests substantial incoming supply.
Sales Transactions Month on Month / Feb 2026 - Mar 2026
Dubai’s leasing market underwent its sharpest seasonal correction of the quarter, with March registering 26,860 new rental contracts, a 27.8% decline from February’s 37,185 registrations. Apartment leases fell 31.9% to 13,512 contracts as the post-holiday relocation rush concluded, while villa rentals dropped 27.8% to 1,593 contracts. The correction aligns with historical Q1 patterns where March typically shows reduced mobility ahead of summer months, though the magnitude exceeded seasonal norms, suggesting tenant retention in existing units as sales market uncertainty increased.
Commercial leasing activity mirrored the sales market’s sharp March adjustment, with total new contracts reaching 11,792 down 22.1% from February. Office leases declined 20.6% to 6,524 contracts as corporate relocation schedules normalized, while retail/showroom registrations fell 28.8% to 1,421 deals following January and February’s active tenant positioning. Industrial leasing contracted 38.2% to 188 contracts, reflecting completed logistics absorptions in Dubai South.
The “other” category, encompassing staff accommodation, declined 20.9% to 3,659 leases. The breadth of the correction suggests market participants are reassessing space requirements ahead of potential economic adjustments.
The apartment segment provided the market’s most stable foundation in March despite the headline contraction, with 10,720 units transacting for AED 22.4 billion. Off-plan dominance continued at 76.7% of volume (8,217 deals, AED 18.1 billion), while ready sales contributed 2,503 units (AED 4.3 billion). Pricing held relatively firm at AED 2,030.8 per square foot for off-plan units, indicating developer pricing power remained intact despite reduced velocity. Top off-plan performers Damac Island City (811), Dubailand Residence (723), and JVC (636) maintained leadership positions though at reduced scales. Secondary market activity concentrated in JVC and Business Bay, where rental yield security supported investor decisions despite broader uncertainty.
Villa transactions normalized further in March to 2,245 deals worth AED 14.6 billion, extending February’s correction pattern. Off-plan villa sales reached 1,719 units (AED 11.1 billion) while ready stock contributed 526 transactions (AED 3.5 billion). The segment’s average ticket size compressed significantly as the market moved away from January’s luxury peak, with off-plan units averaging lower per-unit values than the previous month. Damac Hills 2 and Dubai Hills Estate maintained community-level interest, though transaction volumes retreated to sustainable quarterly averages. The correction positions the segment for selective recovery as new phases release in Q2.
Commercial sales collapsed to 414 transactions worth AED 2.2 billion in March, representing the steepest monthly decline across all sectors. The 47.6% value contraction reflects both reduced transaction counts and smaller average deal sizes, as investors paused capital deployment ahead of clearer economic signals. Office assets in Business Bay and DIFC saw limited activity, while retail and industrial segments experienced proportional declines.
The AED 2.2 billion monthly total represents the lowest commercial sales value since mid-2024, suggesting institutional investors are reassessing yield requirements against rising operational costs.
Land transactions froze in March, with only 186 deals registering AED 4.5 billion in value, a 60.2% monthly decline. The contraction follows February’s volume increase but value drop, indicating developers completed strategic acquisitions in early 2026 and entered a holding pattern. With April bringing 5,909 new apartments and 3,679 villas to market, land banking activity paused as stakeholders assessed absorption rates for incoming supply. The lack of large-scale plot acquisitions suggests a strategic pivot toward project completion rather than new groundbreaking.
February’s AED 61.4 billion and falling 7.6% below March 2025’s AED 47.3 billion. The contraction was led by land values collapsing 60.2% to AED 4.5 billion, commercial sales dropping 47.6% to AED 2.2 billion, and villa transactions declining 22.0% to AED 14.6 billion. Apartments provided relative stability, falling 17.7% to AED 22.4 billion but maintaining the largest value share.
The monthly total represents a normalization toward sustainable quarterly averages after January and February’s exceptional liquidity.
Transactions Value Graph 2025 v/s 2026
Transactions Value 2025 v/s 2026
Dubai registered 13,565 property transactions in March 2026, down 20.8% from February’s 17,120 deals and 10.5% below March 2025’s 15,150 transactions. Apartment volumes fell 18.0% to 10,720 units, while villa transactions declined 19.6% to 2,245.
Land deals collapsed 56.5% to 186 transactions, and commercial sales dropped 49.4% to 414 deals. The broad-based volume contraction across all asset classes suggests market-wide recalibration rather than segment-specific stress, with participants pausing after intensive Q1 activity.
Transactions Volume Graph 2025 v/s 2026
Transactions Volume 2025 v/s 2026
Leasing activity corrected sharply in March, with 26,860 new contracts signed down 27.8% from February’s 37,185 registrations. Apartment leases led the decline, falling 31.9% to 13,512 contracts as the seasonal relocation window closed.
Villa rentals dropped 27.8% to 1,593 contracts, while commercial leasing retreated 22.3% to 11,755 deals. The magnitude of the correction exceeded typical seasonal patterns, suggesting tenant retention increased as sales market uncertainty prompted longer-term lease commitments.
New Rental Transactions
Commercial leasing registered 11,792 new contracts in March, a 22.1% decline reflecting reduced business mobility and space reconfigurations. Office leases declined 20.6% to 6,524 contracts, maintaining relative resilience compared to retail’s 28.8% drop to 1,421 showroom deals.
Industrial leasing experienced the steepest correction at 38.2% (188 contracts), completing prior absorptions in logistics corridors. The “other” category fell 20.9% to 3,659 leases. Despite the contraction, occupancy rates in prime business districts remained stable, suggesting the correction represents lease timing rather than demand erosion.
Commercial Rental Breakdown
Off-plan sales maintained structural dominance in March despite the downturn, capturing 9,936 residential transactions (73.2% of volume) valued at AED 29.2 billion. Ready sales contributed 3,029 deals worth AED 7.8 billion. While off-plan volumes declined 9.4% from February’s 10,974 units, the segment retained market leadership as investors continued favoring payment flexibility over immediate possession.
The off-plan value share reached 78.9% of residential totals, up from February’s 72.6%, as ready stock experienced proportional declines. Cash buyers dominated at 76% of residential transactions (9,857 cash versus 3,108 mortgage).
Off Plan v/s Secondary Sales
Apartments anchored residential activity in March with 10,720 sales totaling AED 22.4 billion, split between 8,217 off-plan deals (AED 18.1 billion) and 2,503 ready transactions (AED 4.3 billion). Villas registered 2,245 deals worth AED 14.6 billion, comprising 1,719 off-plan sales (AED 11.1 billion) and 526 ready deals (AED 3.5 billion).
Off-plan pricing averaged AED 2,030.8 per square foot, down marginally from February’s AED 2,063, while ready stock adjusted to AED 1,647.9 per square foot. The mix shift toward apartments (82.7% of residential volume) reflected reduced luxury villa inventory releases and end-user caution in high-ticket segments.
March off-plan activity concentrated in established master plans as new launches paused, with Damac Island City retaining leadership at 811 sales despite the monthly contraction. Dubailand Residence followed with 723 transactions, while JVC maintained third position with 636 deals both showing resilience in mid-market positioning.
The Heights emerged as a notable performer with 445 sales, and Dubai South rounded out the top five with 433 transactions, indicating logistics corridor appeal. All top performers recorded reduced absorption compared to February, reflecting broader market velocity adjustment rather than project-specific concerns.
Top 5 Performing Areas / Off Plan Sales
The villa leasing market corrected to 1,593 contracts in March, with activity concentrating in established family communities. Damac Hills 2 maintained leadership despite the seasonal decline, followed by Mirdiff and Mudon.
Dubai Hills Estate and Villanova retained positions in the top tier, though all recorded reduced registrations compared to February. The contraction reflected both seasonal patterns and families securing longer-term leases in January and February, reducing March mobility. Rental rates held firm in premium communities despite volume declines, indicating sustained demand for quality family housing.
Top 5 Performing Areas / New Villa Rentals
Top 5 Performing Areas / New Villa Rentals
Ready market activity contracted proportionally in March, with JVC maintaining leadership in resale transactions despite overall volume declines. Business Bay and Dubai Marina sustained investor interest, though transaction counts reflected limited new listings and seller hesitation amid pricing uncertainty.
Top 5 Performing Areas / Secondary Sales
Cash transactions maintained supremacy in March despite market contraction, accounting for 76.0 percent of residential deals (9,857 cash versus 3,108 mortgage). Total mortgage value reached AED 5.9 billion, yielding an average loan size of approximately AED 1.9 million—down from February’s AED 2.39 million as villa financing participation declined.
Apartments showed 78.9 percent cash preference (8,452 cash versus 2,376 mortgage), while villas retained higher financing activity at 62.6 percent cash (1,405 cash versus 840 mortgage). The reduced mortgage volumes reflect both lower transaction counts and conservative bank lending during the market adjustment.
Dubai’s residential pricing showed mixed signals in March, with off-plan rates moderating to AED 2,030.8 per square foot down 1.6 percent from February’s AED 2,063 but maintaining a 14.3% premium over March 2025’s AED 1,778. Ready property prices adjusted to AED 1,647.9 per square foot, declining 6.3 percent month-on-month from AED 1,758. The divergence suggests off-plan developers maintained pricing discipline despite reduced velocity, while ready sellers accepted modest discounts to secure transactions during the correction.
Looking ahead, April brings substantial new inventory with 5,909 apartments and 3,679 villas scheduled for handover representing the largest monthly supply injection of 2026. This influx arrives as transaction velocity normalizes and pricing adjusts, potentially extending competitive pressures in the ready market. However, with population growth sustaining underlying demand and off-plan pricing power remaining intact, the market appears positioned to absorb incoming stock without destabilizing the broader pricing structure established in Q1.
Sales Price Trend (AED per sq.ft.)
Dubai’s real estate market faced its most severe test in March 2026, with transaction value plummeting 28.8 percent to AED 43.7 billion across 13,565 deals. This correction sharper than typical seasonal patterns reflects the immediate impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis following late February’s regional escalation, alongside global trade uncertainty and the temporary suspension of Jebel Ali Port operations.
The geopolitical shock fundamentally altered investor risk calculus, with institutional capital retreating from commercial and land assets evidenced by commercial sales collapsing 47.6% and land values dropping 60.2%. However, Dubai’s safe-haven status within the GCC partially cushioned the blow, as cash buyers maintained 76% market dominance and off-plan pricing held firm above AED 2,000 per square foot despite reduced velocity.
The divergence between asset classes revealed distinct investor psychology during crisis periods. Apartments demonstrated relative resilience, falling 18% in volume while maintaining pricing at AED 2,030 per square foot, supported by end-user demand in mid-market hubs like JVC and Dubailand Residence where rental yields of 6-8% provided downside protection. Conversely, luxury villas typically discretionary purchases by international investors contracted 22% in value as global wealth advisors deferred high-ticket acquisitions pending maritime stability. Mortgage activity compressed to AED 5.9 billion as banks conservatively reassessed income stability for trade-sector employees, though base rates remained accommodative at 4.15% following the US Federal Reserve’s late-2025 cuts.
The rental market provided an early indicator of underlying economic stress, with new contracts falling 27.8% to 26,860 leases exceeding typical seasonal corrections as expatriate hiring froze in logistics and trading sectors dependent on Jebel Ali throughput. Commercial leasing proved more defensive than sales, with office contracts declining 20.6% versus retail’s 28.8% drop, suggesting businesses maintained occupancy commitments despite deferring expansion plans.
This stickiness in existing tenancies, combined with the 11,792 commercial leases signed despite the crisis, indicates that Dubai’s occupier base views the disruption as temporary rather than existential, preserving the revenue streams that underpin property valuations.
As the market enters April facing substantial supply headwinds 5,909 apartments and 3,679 villas scheduled for handover against this risk-off backdrop developer strategy has pivoted decisively toward preservation. With land transactions frozen at just 186 deals and new launches sharply curtailed, the industry is conserving liquidity to complete existing pipelines rather than expanding footprints.
Historical patterns suggest that Dubai typically strengthens following regional volatility as regional and international capital seeks stability; the AED 130 billion in pent-up demand from January-February’s record activity provides substantial recovery fuel. Should Hormuz shipping normalize by late April, the market appears positioned for a sharp Q2 rebound, potentially establishing 2026 as a year of two distinct phases: crisis-depressed Q1 and recovery-driven Q2-Q4.
Mira International Valuations & Research division consists of a multi-disciplinary group of qualified professionals who have extensive local and international experience in the real estate industry.
The team of qualified valuers uses a range of comprehensive methods to provide clients with up-to-date and accurate valuations for all property types. This includes individual properties, property portfolios, and all kinds of asset classes.
The process is carried out by professional valuers who are members of both RICS (The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) and RERA (Real Estate Regulatory Authority), ensuring expertise and compliance with licensing requirements.
The team also provides Feasibility Studies and Development Appraisals to determine the highest and best use, identifying opportunities and helping investors and developers avoid potential pitfalls.
Valuation advice and reports are provided for a variety of purposes, which include the following:
Subscribe to receive top articles every week