Dubai Residential Market Review — September 2026

September 2026 recorded AED 29.8 billion in transaction value across 11,341 sales, with value rising 3.5% and volume falling 6.1% from August, while annual gaps remain -45.5% in value and -44.3% in volume. Plots reached AED 3.7B (+85.0%), adding AED 1.7B and exceeding the AED 1.0B total value gain, while apartment value declined AED 0.9B and villas added AED 0.2B. Leasing rose 13.0% to a cycle high of 47,137 new rental contracts, and mortgage value reached AED 9.5B. Majan and Jebel Ali Downtown led off-plan sales as Azizi Venice moderated. This report covers sales and transaction trends, off-plan and ready sales, performance by property type, leading sales and rental locations, commercial leasing, mortgage and cash buyers, sales prices, October supply and launches, and expert insights with the Q4 outlook.

Dubai recorded 11,341 sales worth AED 29.8 billion in September. Transaction value rose 3.5% from August's AED 28.8 billion, while the number of deals fell 6.1% from 12,082. The gap to last year remains wide: value is 45.5% below September 2025 and volume is 44.3% lower. Over the first nine months of 2026, transaction value totals AED 383.3 billion against AED 499.5 billion a year earlier (-23.3%), and volume stands at 124,339 sales versus 158,184 (-21.4%). Monthly value has stayed within an AED 28.8–35.4 billion range since May, and activity remains about 25–30% below the prior-year run rate.

The month's value gain came from land rather than from the larger segments. Plot sales reached AED 3.7 billion, up 85.0% from AED 2.0 billion in August, and that AED 1.7 billion recovery was larger than the AED 1.0 billion increase in total value. Apartment value declined by AED 0.9 billion to AED 15.1 billion, while villas added AED 0.2 billion to reach AED 8.8 billion and commercial value held at AED 2.2 billion. Apartments made up 80% of September's sales volume, villas 13%, commercial property 5% and plots 2%.

Off-plan sales totalled 7,328 transactions worth AED 14.4 billion, which is 68.9% of residential sales volume and 60.0% of value. Off-plan volume fell 10.9% from 8,223 transactions in August and value declined 10.6%, with the average off-plan deal at AED 1.968 million. Ready property recorded 3,308 sales worth AED 9.6 billion. Ready villas generated AED 4.9 billion in sales, ahead of the AED 4.1 billion from off-plan villas.

Apartments

Apartments recorded 9,133 sales (-9.6%) worth AED 15.1 billion (-5.6%). Off-plan accounted for 71.7% of apartment volume, while the ready share rose to 28.3% from 26.5% in August, staying above 25%. Apartments represent 86.2% of residential sales.

Villas and Townhouses

Villas and townhouses recorded 1,460 sales (+5.0%) worth AED 8.8 billion (+2.3%), a fourth consecutive month of value growth, and account for 36.8% of residential value. The average ready villa deal was AED 6.81 million, against AED 5.23 million off-plan, and ready value led off-plan value for the first time in the cycle.

Commercial

Commercial property recorded 540 sales (+27.1%) worth AED 2.2 billion, unchanged from August. The average deal was AED 4.07 million, compared with AED 5.18 million in August and AED 3.60 million in July. Volume has stayed above 400 for four months, with larger deals occurring intermittently alongside smaller transactions.

Land

Land acquisitions in Jebel Ali are linked to project launches, with developers shifting towards project activation and sales preparation.

In the off-plan market, Majan led with 492 sales, followed by Jebel Ali Downtown with 491, Azizi Venice with 454, JVC with 429 and City of Arabia with 331. The top five together total 2,197 sales, 30% of off-plan volume, which the report describes as broader leadership. Azizi Venice fell to 454 sales from 1,481 in August and from its June peak of 2,402. Jebel Ali Downtown recorded 491 sales, down from 713 in August, and marked its fourth consecutive month in the top five.

The ready market produced 3,308 transactions, sustaining a floor above 3,000 monthly deals. JVC led with 360 ready sales alongside 429 off-plan sales, followed by Business Bay with 222, Dubai Marina with 144, Downtown Dubai with 138 and International City with 104. International City re-entered the top five, displacing Dubai Hills Estate, which reflects sustained demand for affordable property.

Leasing was the strongest part of September's data. Dubai registered 47,137 new rental contracts, up 13.0% from 41,703 in August and a fourth consecutive leasing cycle high, following the highs of June, July and August. Apartment contracts grew 17.4% to 28,969, villa contracts rose 13.9% to 3,590 and commercial contracts increased 5.1% to 14,578. Apartments made up 61% of September's new contracts, villas 8% and commercial property 31%. The report links demand to returning corporate occupiers and school-year family moves, and reads the cycle highs, together with five months of villa leasing growth, as a sign of a growing occupier base.

Commercial Leasing Breakdown

Commercial leasing grew across most categories. Office leases rose 10.1% to 6,803, a recovery after July's -23.9% and August's -5.9%. Shops and showrooms grew 13.4% to 1,853 contracts, and industrial leasing rose 11.5% to 321, linked to Jebel Ali logistics. The Others category, which covers flexible workspace and accommodation formats, recorded 5,592 contracts (-3.3%), or 38.4% of detailed leasing.

Apartment Rentals

Dubai recorded 28,969 new apartment leases. JVC led with 2,562 leases, up 17.0% from 2,190 in August, followed by Business Bay with 1,889 after growth of 49%, Dubai Marina with 1,238, Downtown Dubai with 1,055 and Arjan with 877. Growth was broad across the leading communities.

Villa Rentals

Villa leasing reached 3,590 contracts (+13.9%). Damac Hills 2 retained the lead with 332 leases, while Damac Lagoons reached a record 194 contracts, ahead of Arabian Ranches 3 with 192, Mirdif with 163 and Dubai Hills Estate with 149. With 479 villas due for delivery in October against nearly 3,600 monthly leases, the leasing-to-new-supply ratio is about 7.5:1, which supports the report's rental outlook.

Mortgage transaction value reached AED 9.5 billion, a cycle high, and the average loan size rose to approximately AED 2.46 million from AED 2.11 million in August. Of the 10,593 residential buyers in September, 6,730 (63.5%) paid cash and 3,863 (36.5%) used a mortgage. Apartment buyers split 2,419 mortgage to 6,714 cash, a mortgage share of 26.5%, while villas recorded 1,444 mortgage purchases against 16 cash, a mortgage share of 98.9%. The report interprets the villa figure as a withdrawal of cash investors, while noting that financing status alone does not establish whether a buyer is an end-user or an investor. Mortgage data is described as sourced from Reidin and verified by DXB Interact.

Off-plan pricing fell to AED 1,824.7 per sq. ft., down 0.9% from August and 9.2% from AED 2,009.0 in September 2025. It is the first reading below the AED 1,838–1,850 range held from May to August, and the report flags a renewed test of the price floor. Ready prices rose 0.2% to AED 1,685.6 per sq. ft., from AED 1,681.8 in August, and are 4.4% above AED 1,613.8 a year earlier. The report records five consecutive months of relative outperformance by the secondary market.

October's incoming supply totals 1,816 units: 1,337 apartments (74%) and 479 villas (26%). Against 28,969 monthly apartment leases and 3,590 villa leases, the report sees leasing as a demand cushion, with a villa comparison of approximately 7.5:1. Leasing contracts and new deliveries measure different activity, so this is a comparison rather than a direct absorption measure. The report expects supply to remain manageable, while Q4 absorption will test the secondary market's pricing resilience.

Twelve projects are set to launch in October. Emaar leads with five: Beachgate By Address at Dubai Harbour (from AED 10.5 million), Grand Polo Club villas and townhouses at Dubai Investment Park 2 (from AED 3.6 million), Avarra by Palace in Business Bay (from AED 2.7 million), Creek Bay at Dubai Creek Harbour (from AED 1.8 million) and Terra Woods at Expo City (from AED 1.6 million). The range runs from AED 10.5 million waterfront product to AED 1.6 million apartments, and 80/20 payment plans are the prevalent Emaar structure while mortgage rates remain a headwind.

DAMAC's two launches pair Chelsea Residences in Maritime City (from AED 2.17 million) with Golf Gate 2 in DAMAC Hills (from AED 1.2 million), both on 60/40 plans. The report links the latter to demand and resale yields in the golf-community corridor. Sobha Hartland II in Mohammed Bin Rashid City starts from AED 1.28 million and draws end-users and South Asian investors through the area's connectivity.

The remaining releases support the pipeline selectively. Binghatti Etherea in JVC offers a sub-AED 800K entry (AED 765K) and a 70/30 plan, Nakheel Palm Central at Palm Jebel Ali starts from AED 2.7 million and continues the waterfront focus, Ellington Everly Place at Meydan Horizon starts from AED 2.0 million, and Wasl Boulevard Living 1 & 2 is planned in Jebel Ali. The report interprets phased releases after the Q2–Q3 corrections and May's supply contraction as a way to sustain pricing and gauge demand.

Leasing is the strongest demand signal. The 47,137 contracts (+13.0%) mark a cycle high, with JVC's 2,562 apartment leases and Business Bay's 1,889 showing demand across major communities. Seasonal returns amplify the figures, but the report interprets successive highs as population and business growth.

Financing underpins villa activity. AED 9.5 billion in mortgages and a 98.9% villa mortgage share indicate heavy reliance on financed buyers, and villa value has grown for four consecutive months. The report expects returning discretionary cash investors to add demand if regional conditions normalise.

Off-plan leadership is broadening. Majan, Jebel Ali Downtown, JVC and City of Arabia provide more diverse demand as Azizi Venice normalises, and Jebel Ali's fourth top-five month is interpreted as a durable corridor signal rather than a single launch spike.

Pricing and supply remain the Q4 tests. Off-plan pricing fell to AED 1,824.7, while ready prices rose 0.2% to AED 1,685.6, and launch mix may explain part of the decline. Regional normalisation, cash-buyer participation and absorption of 1,337 apartments plus 479 villas are the key variables.